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I’m Just Not Into This Stock

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Peabody Energy (BTU)

$67

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

April 29, 2011

Jul 20

Energy & Commodities

Sharek’s Take
David SharekPeabody Energy is suffering a bit from flooding. The company just lowered net quarter’s earnings due to Australian flooding. Its not all bad though, coal prices are rising down under.

Energy isn’t rising anymore, the stocks are now boring. I’m just not into this stock right now. The numbers are good and I think if we hold this invesment we will be rewarded, I’m just bored with BTU.

One-Year Chart
Looking at the one-year chart I should be so bearish on this stock. It’s been a big winner. Quarterly profit growth (bottom) is very solid and the P/E of 15 makes the stock cheap — espcailly considering the etimated Long Term Growth Rate of 26%.
Earnings Table
BTU’s profits gres 29% last quarter, good. Renenue rose 15% which is about what I expect for this company.

Peabody beat by 7 cents las t quarter on favorable coal prices.

Annual estimates declined across the board. Hot stocks raise annual estimates each quarter.

Next quarter’s earnings not look to come in 19 cents under plan. Other than that profit growth is very strong the enxt four quarters, but flooding and coal prices will cause these figures to fluctuate.

Fair Value
BTU is probably qworth 20 times earnings sincethe P/E between during 2002-2006 (and also in 2009) was 18 to 22. There’s good upside for shareholders both this year and next year.
Ten-Year Chart
Peabody’s ten-year chart shows some extreme volitiluity but overall a solid investment. This is the first quarter the ten-year chart could be completed, and the stock has grown at 23% a year during the decade.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

14 of 20

Energy isn’t in favor right now. Peabody Energy is a fine cola company in a growing economy. Things are going well. I’m just more excited about some of our other stocks right now.

BTU is ranked 14th in the 22 stock Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. I would put this stock in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio if all that was rising was energy. Right now the sexy stocks are doing better.

 
 
 
 

 

 

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

N/A

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