SpaceX’s (SPCX) Revenue is Expected to Soar Via High Demand for AI Compute

Stock (Symbol)

SpaceX (SPCX)

Stock Price

$138

Sector

Data is as of

Expected to Report

Company Description

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. designs, manufactures, launches, and operates products and services built on technologies, including rockets and spacecraft.

The Company’s segments include Space, Connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI). Its Space segment designs, manufactures, and launches reusable rockets to provide access to space.

Its Connectivity segment operates broadband data and communications network powered by approximately 9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in Low-Earth orbit, delivering connectivity to consumer, enterprises, and government customers over 164 countries, territories, and other markets.

In its AI segment, it operates a vertically integrated AI platform spanning its truth-seeking frontier model Grok, AI solutions for consumer and enterprise customers, X-its real-time information, entertainment, and free speech platform and AI computational infrastructure. Source: Refinitiv

Sharek’s Take

Sales and profits estimates ramped up this quarter. 

• Year: Profit, Revenue
• 2025: $0.05, $19 billion (actual results)
• 2026: $0.45, $48 billion; up from -$0.06, $42 billion last qtr (estimates).
• 2027: $3.05, $164 billion; up from $1.75, $88 billion last qtr.
• 2028: $7.32, $280 billion; up from $4.97 $147 billion last qtr.
• 2029: $11.21, $419 billion; up from $6.69, $273 billion last qtr.
• 2030: $15.65, $567 billion; up from $10.23, $434 billion last qtr.
• Note: SpaceX internal projections are for $1 trillion in revenue in 2030.

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) is a space technology company by Elon Musk that designs, builds and launches rockets and spacecraft to carry satellites, cargo and astronauts into space. It develops reusable rockets that can return to Earth and fly again, helping reduce the cost of space travel. Its Starship program aims to transport people and cargo to the Moon and Mars, while its Starlink service uses a network of satellites to provide internet access around the world, including in remote areas. SpaceX also operates an artificial intelligence business that develops Grok, an AI assistant, and Cursor, a tool that helps people write computer code. It also operates X, the social media platform, and builds the computing infrastructure needed to develop and run its AI systems. Here are the three SpaceX operating segments, with last qtr’s revenue stats:

1. Super Intelligence (X, xAI & Grok): 52% of total revenue, revenue up 830% year-over-year.
   • X social platform (formerly Twitter).
   • xAI is the Artificial Intelligence company.
   • Grok is an AI assistant and chatbot built by xAI.
   • X and Grok had 1.3 billion accounts active as of December 31, 2025.
   • Colossus is an AI supercomputer built in Memphis, TN.
   • Colossus 2 is an even bigger Ai supercomputer operating and expanding a few miles away in Southaven, MS.
   • Cursor: today, SpaceX acquired Anysphere, the developer of Cursor, an AI computer programmer.
   • The segment generates revenue but operates at a substantial loss, driven by heavy spending on computing infrastructure.
   • Last qtr was primarily driven by the activation of new cloud services agreements, the acquisition of Cursor, and increased Grok adoption across enterprise customers and consumers.
2. Connectivity (Starlink): 36% of total revenue, revenue up 69% year-over-year.
   • Starlink is SpaceX’s satellite internet service, using 9600 satellites in low Earth orbit to provide fast internet, especially in places with poor internet access.
   • Starshield is a version of Starlink built for government and defense customers, offering secure communications and other national security services.
   • Connectivity is the largest source of revenue for SPCX and is the only profitable segment.
   • Last qtr, Consumer revenue was up 69% year-over-year while Enterprise & Government revenue was up 91% year-over-year.
3. Space (SpaceX Launch Services): 12% of total revenue, revenue up 6% year-over-year. 
   • SpaceX Launch Services launches rockets, satellites, spacecraft, and other payloads into space. Completed 650 orbital space launches as of March 2026. SpaceX handles about 85% of all the world’s rocket launches.
   • Falcon 9: SpaceX’s main reusable rocket, used for most launches.
   • Falcon Heavy: A partially-reusable heavy-lift rocket built from three Falcon 9 cores, used for larger payloads.
   • Starship: A fully reusable next-generation rocket still in development, intended for deep-space missions.
   • Dragon: A spacecraft that carries astronauts and cargo to and from the International Space Station.
   • Space generates revenue primarily from government customers, including the US Department of Defense and NASA.
   • The segment is unprofitable, driven by Starship development costs.
   • Last qtr, SPCX completed 12 customer launches during, including NASA’s mission to launch the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope.

SPCX is an expensive stock with vast potential. The most impressive thing about SpaceX is the payback period on new capital deployments for compute is less than one year. That’s $1 going in and $1 in cash flow coming back within a year. The payback period for a business is often 5 to 10 years. That’s power plant level. And SpaceX will receive a very significant percent of NVIDIA’s GPUs next year. SPCX is part of the Growth Portfolio and Focus List.

One Year Chart

SPCX stock spiked after these earnings were announced, then immediately fell back. 

There is no Est. LTG.

The P/E is high because the company just starting making a profit last quarter.

Earnings Table

• Super Intelligence (SI) was the standout growth driver for the quarter, powered by the ramp up of cloud service agreements..
• SI ended the quarter with 1.7 gigawatts of compute capacity, on pace for 2.5 to 3 gigawats by the end of the year.
• Musk is aiming to add 20 gigawats of compute capacity in 2027, and is confident he can deliver 10 gigawatts for a total of 13 gigawatts.
• Starlink added 1.6 million customers (not users) in the quarter, bringing the total to 14 million subscribers.
• Starlink will have 100x the current bandwidth in probably three years.
• Musk said there’s probably demand for 1000x more bandwidth than there is currently because AI agents will use more bandwith than a person, and there will be more agents than there are people.
• Grok Bot has paid weekly users of 800,000 more than double the prior month.
• Surpassed 22 million monthly users on Starlink Mobile, up 37% sequentially.

Annual Profit Estimates increased this qtr. One big reason is growth in its Super Intelligence business, boosted by AI contracts and the Cursor acquisition.

Qtrly Profit Estimates look good with estimates of $0.40 per share, $0.78 per share, $0.96 per share and $1.21 per share the next four quarters. There is no year-over-year revenue estimate for next qtr as the company wasn’t public a year ago. Analysts see revenue of $22.9 billion next qtr, up from $14.6 billion sequentially. Management guided total company revenues to be ~$35 billion 2QtrsOut.

Fair Value

My SPCX Fair Value is 35x annual revenue.

Current:
40 x $48 billion revenue est. = $1.9 trillion market cap
$1.9 trillion / 13.2 billion shares = $147

2026 Fair Value:
35 x $48 billion revenue est. = $1.7 trillion market cap
$1.7 trillion / 13.2 billion shares = $128
Upside/Downside: -13%

2028 Fair Value:
35 x $164 billion revenue est. = $5.7 trillion market cap
$5.7 trillion / 13.2 billion shares = $435
Upside/Downside: +196%

Bottom Line

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) had a massive post-IPO run, reaching above $225 before falling sharply.

SpaceX’s momentum as a business is extraordinary. With revenue estimated to climb from $48 billion in 2026 to $164 billion in 2027, the potential for this stock is vast. Also, this is more a story on AI expansion (and being the most efficient at it) than a story about space. Risks include falling short of these lofty expectations and new shares of stock flooding the market.

SPCX ranks 8th in the Growth Portfolio and Focus List  Power Rankings.

Power Rankings

8 of 29

Focus List

8 of 16

Conservative Stock Portfolio

N/A