| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
Ancestory.com (ACOM) |
$32 |
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| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
March 23, 2011 |
Apr 25 |
Technology |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
 Ancestory.com is a little undervalued. In a nutshell this stock is $32 and has a Fair Value of $36 this year. Profits are expected to climb 42% in 2013, but there’s a catch. Only 2 of 8 analysts that cover the stock have 2013 estimates. One of them (from Jeffries) also has the highest estimate on the street for 2011 and 2012. So this analyst may be overly bullish for some reason.I’m unsure as to whether Ancestory.com can charge $20 per-month or $155 per-year for family tree history. It seems like this would appeal only to people who were obsessed with tracking their family history. But for now everything is growing well. |
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| One-Year Chart | ||
 The one-year chart shows ACOM has been a market leader during the past year. Profit growth still looks strong in the quarters ahead. One change I made this quarter is to shade the P/E in black from green. I think the stock is selling around where it should be and is not a real-big value. |
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| Earnings Table | ||
 Profit growth was 25% last quarter as sales grew 38%. Ancestory.com has a valuable database of papers and records that no one else has. The company spends good money to build this database, giving Ancestory.com a solid barrier to entry — you can’t copy this.Acom mearly met estimates last quarter, this is disapointing because the company beat the street by a nickel the quarter before. The inability to raise 2012/2012 guidance means ACOM is not longer a top-tier growth stock. 2013 profits are expected to jump 42%, but this has to be taken with a grain of salt. Quarterly estimates look pretty good, so ACOM is still good investment. |
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| Fair Value | ||
 I’m taking ACOM’s Fair Value P/E down from 40 to 35 because the company didn’t beat last quarter and 2011/2012 estimates stayed the same. This stock is selling around Fair Value. |
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| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 Ancestory.com has been a great stock since coming public in November 2009. The profit growth rates have been high each year (bottom). Looking up to the one-year chart at the top of the page, ACOM is pasing in the $30-$35 area so a good time to take profits would be $34. |
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| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
12 of 19 |
ACOM is a good stock to own in the Growth Portfolio. Solid profit growth is expected the next four quarters. Ancestory.com was originally purchased for clients at $34. That’s the top of the current trading range. With limited upside this year I will look to sell ACOM from the Aggressive Growth Portfolio if the stock gets over $34. |
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio
10 of 10 |
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