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Tesla Misses Model 3 Sales Estimates

December 14, 2018 / By /
Stock (Symbol)

Tesla (TSLA)
Stock Price

$307
Sector
Energy & Commodities
Data is as of
December 3, 2017
Expected to Report
Feb 20
Company Description
Tesla Motors, Inc. is a United States-based company, which designs, develops, manufactures and sells electric vehicles, electric vehicle powertrain components and stationary energy storage systems. TSLA sells and produces the Model S and Model X electric cars, Supercharger charging stations and Powerwall, a home battery. Source: Thomson Financial
Sharek’s Take
David SharekTesla (TSLA) just announced sales figures for the 4th qtr, and or the 2nd time in two qtrs, Tesla (TSLA) lowered Model 3 production targets. Tesla delivered 3000 vehicles in 2012, 22,000 in 2013, 35,000 in 2014, 50,000 cars in 2015, and 84,000 in 2016. And from my calculations it delivered 107,000 last year. The numbers are good, but are under Elon Musk’s expectations. But I don’t mind. I’d rather him reach for the sky, fall short, and keep pushing. Here’s Tesla’s current lineup:

  • Tesla’s flagship is the Tesla S, which went from prototype to production in 2012 and within three years owned one-qtr of the U.S. Large Luxury Vehicle market.
  • In 2015 the company rolled out the Tesla Model X, an all-wheel drive SUV with falcon wing doors, seating for 7, and is ridiculously fast.
  • The Model 3 is Tesla’s entry into the mainstream market, with a price tag starting at $35,000 but lower profit margins.
  • Semi was introduced last November as the safest most comfortable truck ever with badass performance of 0-to-0 in 20 seconds. It possesses Autopilot to avoid collisions, four independent motors, and a range of 300 miles for $150,000 or 500 miles for $180,000.
  • The next venture will be the Tesla Y compact SUV, followed by a minibus for public transportation.

Long-term 20%-25% of Americans could be driving Tesla cars with Solar City roof panels charging the cars at night and providing power to the home. Billionaire fund manager Ron Baron feels investors could make 30 to 50 times their money in TSLA in 15 years. But one thing that could derail things is Tesla batteries — which could have issues. But I’m sure this issue is being addressed. I feel TSLA could be a ten-bagger in ten-years, but I consistently take profits in the stock by selling off some of my position. Today I will reduce my position further, but remain bullish on the stock long-term.
One Year Chart
Oh, this could be a double-top in the chart pattern. If TSLA closes below $300 that could be a sign of more declines ahead. Also, a couple years ago analysts felt the company would be profitable by 2017. But over the last 4 qtrs has been lowering and missing profit targets. And it’s still losing money. This qtr TSLA lowered estimates again, and isn’t expected to be profitable until 2019. Nice Est. LTG of 35% a year tho.
Fair Value
I don’t have a Fair Value on this stock for 2018 as the company is expected to lose money. If I put a 100 P/E on 2019 estimates I get a 2019 Fair Value of $448 a share. But 2019 estimates have gone from $7.48 to $5.70, $6.32 and now $4.48 the last 4 qtrs. So We can’t bank on TSLA making $4.48 in 2019, can we?
Bottom Line
Tesla is one of the greatest investment opportunities of our lifetime, but carries risk. The ten-year chart shows a stock that has gone on tears higher, then followed that up with a basing period. And now I feel the stock has lost momentum and is building another base. Thus I will sell the stock from the Aggressive Growth Portfolio. I’m still bullish on the company long-term and will continue to hold it Growth Portfolio where the stock will rank 26th of 38 stocks in the Power Rankings.
Power Rankings
Growth Stock Portfolio

26 of 38

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

N/A

Conservative Stock Portfolio

N/A

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