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Value is Back in Style

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

TD Bank (TD)

$39

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

September 14, 2015

Dec 3

Financial

Sharek’s Take
David SharekToronto Dominion Bank (TD), better known as TD Bank, is Canada’s 2nd largest bank and is located throughout southern Canada and the eastern US. I purchased the stock earlier this year because this safe stock had perennially sold for 14x earnings and I was able to pick it up for 11x. I feel its only a matter of time until bank stocks go up in anticipation of higher interest rates (may be a bit of a wait as Canada’s economy isn’t growing). The good news is TD didn’t crack under pressure during the recent stock market correction, and has even gone up from $39 to $41 since these charts were done a month ago. It now it looks like growth stocks have gone out of favor in the stock market and value stocks are back in style. My 2016 Fair Value on the stock is $54, which is a solid 32% above today’s (Oct 12) price. Investors also earn a dividend of around 3.5% while they wait.
One-Year Chart
TD_2015_Q3This chart looks terrible — that is unless you got in around $40. Then you might see the stock bottoming here and making its way back towards $50. The Est. LTG is just 7% and if you add in the dividend this looks to be a double-digit grower for 11x earnings.
Earnings Table
TD_2015_Q3_EPSTD grew sales 7% last qtr which was good. Sales growth could be flat this year, maybe up 6% next year. Profit growth was just 3% last qtr.

The company beat the street but it was just by a penny.

Annual Profit Estimates came down a bit since last qtr.
Quarterly estimates show 5% profit growth on the horizon.
Fair Value
TD_2015_Q3_PHIn five of the last ten years TD has had a P/E of 14. This has the opportunity to be a good investment if value stocks come back into favor.
Ten-Year Chart
TD_2015_Q3_10yrThis to me looks like a slow climb higher if you ignore the 2008 financial crisis and the recent pullback. I can imagine this stock going back to $50 soon.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

21 of 27

Toronto Dominion Bank is a stock that analysts expect will grow profits 7% a year long-term and if you tack on a 3.5% yield you might have a double-digit grower with lots of safety — one that you bought at 11x earnings. Value stocks are back in style and that could mean TD going higher. The upside here is very good, as is the safety.

TD ranks just 21st of 27 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings because this is stock to sit on. 
It’s not in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

N/A

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