| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) |
$150 |
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| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
April 30, 2014 |
Jul 21 – Jul 25 |
Food & Necessities |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
 O’Reilly Automotive is at the top o’ its trading range, and might not be able to make a move higher. ORLY’s profit growth fell from 23% 2QtrsAgo to 18% last qtr. With an 21 P/E, the stock’s within 3% of its fair value. Since annual profit estimates didn’t increase much, I don’t think this stock has the juice to make a move to the next level. O’Reilly does a lot of things right and grows earnings through a combination of opening new locations, buying other auto parts chains, and buying back stock. That combination should keep profits growing around 18% a year. Winter weather has been bad, taking a toll on cars, that could boost ORLY’s earnings past expectations this qtr. |
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| One-Year Chart | ||
 It’s easy to see in this one-year chart that ORLY’s growth seems to be slowing, the quarterly growth has slipped below 20%. The stock’s also around its highs, and with only 16% growth expected the next two qtrs, I don’t think the stock’s got enough profit growth to continue higher. |
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| Earnings Table | ||
 Profits increased 18% last quarter, sales rose 18% as well.ORLY beat estimates by 3 cents last quarter, and had upped prior to that, the quarter was good, but could have been better because of the bad weather. Annual Profit Estimates only increased a little bit this qtr. They jumped last quarter. So momentum has slowed. Estimated quarterly profit shows teens growth ahead. That’s good, just less than the 20% I like to have. |
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| Fair Value | ||
 I still have ORLY’s Fair Value P/E set to 22, but I’ll probably bring that down next quarter if the winter weather fails to boost profits. The stock’s upside to 2015 is OK. |
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| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 This stock’s been on a beautiful run the last five years. But now profit growth is set to slow to 17%, and that might not be enough to push the stock higher. |
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| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
25 of 26 |
O’Reilly Automotive is a good quality stock, that’s why I don’t want to sell it, but I will if I see something better I will. I think this stock will be around this price for a while. ORLY is ranked 25th in the 26 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. ORLY is not in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio. |
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio
N/A |
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