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Buying O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Before the Close

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY)

$99

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

April 23, 2013

Apr 24

Food & Necessities

Sharek’s Take
David SharekO’Reilly Automotive will be added to the Growth Portfolio today. O’Reilly is one of the largest auto parts chains in the U.S, second to Autozone (AZO). Here’s why I’m buying ORLY:

  • The company has been beating estimates and it looks like that will happen again when ORLY reports tonight. I feel the stock will be higher tomorrow, and this gets us in at a good price.
  • ORLY is expanding by buying other auto parts chains, like VIP Parts, TIres & Service and CSK Auto (in 2008). The conversion from CSK stores to O’Reilly is currentyly expanding sales and profits. This is a catalyst.
  • The company has around 4000 stores and will be opening around 200 a year in the foreseable future.
  • Management buys back stock.

All in all I think this is a 17% grower. We’re picking it up for 17 times earnings.

One-Year Chart
Quarterly profits have been growing a brisk 20% or more. Stock’s P/E of 17 puts the stock on sale by 15%. Only one down year of profit growth, and that was the recession of 2008 (company bounced back fast).
Earnings Table
Sales grew only 7% last quarter, profits rose 23%. CSK stores are doing better, helping profits. Stock buybacks help too.

ORLY has been beating the street for many quarters. Last quarter’s beat was the most impressive, that’s why I’m buying today.

Annual Profit Estimates just jumped after last quarter’s report. Stock is timely.

Quarterly profits look really good — and growing.

Fair Value
With around 20% profit growth on the horizon, ORLY is worth 20 times earnings, the stock’s 15% undervalued.
Ten-Year Chart
I owned ORLY around ten years ago. Loved that it was a 20% grower. But I sold it when profit growth slowed. Now ORLY is growing fast again because its opening and acquiring stores — then improving them. Nice chart. Seems safe.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

8 of 15

O’Reilly Automotive is on a roll of doing better than expectation. The combination of 5% more new stores, buying of other chains, and stock buyback is growing profits in the high teens. This is a solid stock we can buy at a good price and hold.

ORLY is ranked 8th in the 15 stock Growth Portfolio Power Rankings.
ORLY is not in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio because it’s only undervalued by 15%, that’s not enough horsepower.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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