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Maximum Overdrive

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

MasterCard (MA)

$637

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

Sept 9, 2013

Oct 28 – Nov 4

Financial

Sharek’s Take
David SharekMasterCard stock is in maximum overdrive. MA has gone straight from $200 to almost $700 in just three years. Even this week it’s been on fire. I produced these charts and tables two days ago when MA was $637 and today the stock just closed at $668. Investors now respect the fact MA can be counted on as a 20% grower, and have raised the stock’s P/E to 24 to account for the high degree of certainty in MasterCard’s future profitability. Even now management has boldly stated 20% growth will continue through 2015. The only knock against the stock is this 24 P/E is around the stock’s historical high, so MA isn’t a good buy at these levels.
One-Year Chart
MA_2013_Q3Although the stock’s been on a tear the past year, the profits haven’t charged higher as much as the stock has. Part of the gain in the stock price is due to the P/E rising from 21 last year to 24 now. Two years ago the P/E was 19.
Earnings Table
MA_2013_Q3_EPSMasterCard posted solid revenue growth of 15% last quarter, almost double the 8% 2QtrsAgo. Profit growth was 23% last quarter.

MA crushed earnings estimates by a whopping 66 cents, but I think that might be a one time shot. 

Annual Profit Estimates increased by around that 66 cents.

Quarterly estimates look fair, not great. Management has previously stated this will be a slower growth year, and investors don’t seem to mind.

Fair Value
MA_2013_Q3_PHNotice MA has a P/E around 25 in 2007-2008. Then the stock was undervalued during 2010-2012. Now the P/E is where it should be. This stock has solid momentum to go higher, but it’s not undervalued like it used to be.
Ten-Year Chart
MA_2013_Q3_10yrThis ten-year chart shows the stock is a little extended here. Lots of stocks haven’t corrected in around a year, and that tells me there is a storm ahead. All stocks correct eventually. Also note profit growth has been slower the past two years (bottom/right).
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

11 of 24

MasterCard stock has positive momentum that’s gonna be hard to slow. MA is in maximum overdrive. There’s good upside for 2014 but the stock’s not on sale right now as this 20% grower has a P/E of 24.

MA is ranked 11th of 24 positions in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. MA isn’t in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio, but I will add it if it dips. 
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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