| Stock (Symbol) | Date Expected |
Date Reported |
Profit Expected |
Profit Reported |
Beat, Met or Missed |
| Sharek’s Take | |||||
| Apple (AAPL) | 1/18 | 1/18 | $4.87 | $6.43 | Beat $1.56 |
| Apple’s revenue growth in the last five quarters is: 32%, 49%, 61%, 67% and now 71%. Business is accelerating. AAPL stock is one of the biggest out there — and business is accelerating. Analysts had estimates of $20 for 2011, that’s got to go up to maybe $24-$25. That’s a P/E of 14-15. This stock should double by the end of 2012. | |||||
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) | 1/20 | 1/20 | $2.24 | $3.02 | Beat $1.56 |
| This is what I’ve been waiting for. ISRG was dead during calender year 2010 as profit growth fell from 54% & 67% to 35% & 38%. But by the 4th quarter of last year, the P/E had gotten down to 27 — so I held. Went from $290 to $325 after reporting earnings of $3.02 were WAY over estimates of $2.24 — but more importantly the stock has momentum again. Hang on. | |||||
| Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) | 1/24 | 2/2 | $0.17 | $0.18 | Beat $0.01 |
| Stock will breakout BIG TIME on the guidance. The $0.17 estimate was lowered by 4 cents last quarter, so the penny beat wasn’t all-that. The big news is GMCR sees next quarter $0.42, I had $0.33. That would be 100% growth for three consecutive quarters. 2011 estimates were $1.16, so at $38 the P/E is around 33. BTW I sold a little GMCR earlier in the week as the stock lost momentum, and my interest. The good news is taking us by surprise — a good thing for the stock as money managers will be forced to “buy it now”. | |||||
| Baidu.com (BIDU) | 1/25 | 1/31 | $0.45 | $0.50 | Beat $0.05 |
| Baidu doubled revenue and had profits up 177%. After breaking out to an all-time high this morning, the stock is only selling for 39 times earnings. BIDU usually has a P/E of 65 so this train has fuel to keep running. Oh, and when that P/E was 65, profit growth wasn’t nearly this high. The only bad thing is BIDU didn’t beat by a whole lot. More on the quarter here. | |||||
| Peabody Energy (BTU) | 1/25 | 1/25 | $0.91 | $0.85 | Missed $0.06 |
| BTU beat “the street” estimates but missed my estimates. Next quarter’s estimate is now $0.60, it was $1.09 in December. 2011 est just increased from $4.58 to $4.75 and 2012 looks like $6.10, higher than the $5.50 I had. There’s a lot going on here. Stock is hitting resistance of its 52-week high around $65. I own BTU because I need energy. | |||||
| Suncor (SU) | 2/1 | 2/2 | $0.47 | $0.57 | Beat $0.10 |
| Profits rose 171% on a 42% gain in revenue. Profit margins were “significantly higher” last quarter. SU hitting 52-week highs at $42 but the all-time high is $74. Exxon (XOM) is already at all-time highs. Maybe SU can get there too? | |||||
| Mastercard (MA) | 2/3 | 2/3 | $3.03 | $3.16 | Beat $0.13 |
| There’s not a lot of news on this, and the stock’s not moving after results. I thought MA was going to have a great year in 2011 but the stock doesn’t have momentum. Sells for 14 times earnings, so the P/E should rise either this year — or next. | |||||
| Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) | 2/8 | 2/8 | $0.53 | $0.55 | Beat $0.02 |
| Stock jumping 12% today after earnings. Same store sales were flat last quarter, but up around 3% for the start of this quarter. Chicken wing prices are lower, that’s helping profit margins and we should see estimates rise over the next week. Overall, I’m not buying more BWLD — its a great stock to buy low. | |||||
| Rovi (ROVI) | 2/7 | 2/15 | $0.53 | $0.54 | Beat $0.01 |
| Rovi signs all these new deals to put menu guides into new and exciting electronic devices — then doesn’t beat the street by more than a penny. As I have thought for a while, Rovi is losing the negotiation when these deals are done. I had been taking profits in ROVI by selling partial positions (say half the shares) and now I have to decide to sell all the shares or wait for the long-haul because this is a top technology company this decade. | |||||
| Cognizant Tech. Solutions (CTSH) | 2/7 | 2/7 | $0.65 | $0.66 | Beat $0.01 |
| Revenue was better than expected, and the company guided revenue estimates higher. Profits were only a tiny bit better than expected though and profit estimates might not increase. Stock is flat after earnings. Selling for around 27 times estimates, CTSH seems fairly valued. | |||||
| Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) | 2/10 | 2/10 | $1.27 | $1.47 | Beat $0.20 |
| Quarterly same-store-sales jumped 13%, that will keep this stock hot. Stock did a really weird thing after reporting after the close on 2/10. First the stock was bid up after hours. Then when CMG opened for trading the next day, it opened below the previous close (profit taking?) only to jump higher to an all-time high during the day. Stock selling for around 36 times earnings, so its right where it should be. | |||||
| Ctrip.com (CTRP) | 2/13 | 2/14 | $0.25 | $0.30 | Beat $0.05 |
| This isn’t good — CTRP thinks revenue will climb 20% this quarter. The economy is hot and Chinese people are traveling more and more. 20% revenue growth? Stock has a P/E of around 30-35 and an estimates Long Term Growth Rate of 27%.CTRP is fairly valued. If you sell, you’ll likely see the stock higher next year. If you hold you’ll likely be sitting on dead money. | |||||
| Ancestory.com (ACOM) | 2/14 | 2/24 | $0.25 | $0.25 | Met |
| ACOM only met estimates, bummer because the company beat by a nickel the quarter before. Profit growth was only 25% this time around. I’m getting bored with this stock and think its fairrly valued around $34-$35. I might sell it there. | |||||
| Priceline.com (PCLN) | 2/14 | 2/23 | $3.09 | $3.40 | Beat $0.31 |
| CNBC says Shares of Priceline Plunge After hours when the stock closed at $425 and bid/ask is $413-414 around 4:10pm. That’s like 3%. In other news, the $3.40 beat by 31 cents but revenue didn’t beat estimates. Stock selling for 32 times earnings — very high historically but the new norm. I don’t like the look of PCLN’s one-year chart — stock yearns to correct. | |||||
| Camelot Information Systems (CIS) | 2/20 | 3/4 | $0.22 | $0.24 | Beat $0.02 |
| Company guided revenue up and profits down. I’m not a fan of that. Management took next quarter’s estimate from $0.13 to $0.09. I no longer feel CIS is a top-stock. | |||||
| Herbalife (HLF) | 2/21 | 2/23 | $1.12 | $1.31 | Beat $0.19 |
| Herbalife beat this morning and the stock opened up at an all-time high. Never has an investor paid more for HLF stock than the first buyer today. Next qtrs profits are now expected to be up 23%. Last quarter’s profits rose 34%. Don’t you think this stock deserves a P/E of 20? That’s 20 x $5.40 = $108 — 50% upside from the current $72 quote. Co. now pays $1 a share per year dividend (a quarter-per-quarter). | |||||
| Catalyst Health Solutions (CHSI) | 2/21 | 2/22 | $0.54 | $0.56 | Beat $0.02 |
| CHSI acquired Independent Blue Cross’ (IBC) PBM unit, FutureScripts in August 2010. This year CHSI is trying to digest the big purchase and that is causing profits (+37%) to grow slower than revenue (+49%) because CHSI is having to give more to re-sign FutureScripts customers once the contracts are up for renewal. CHSI has a P/E of around 20 and should grow profits around 30% this year. | |||||
| Express Scripts (ESRX) | 2/21 | 2/16 | $0.70 | $0.71 | Beat $0.01 |
| ESRX only beat by a penny and didn’t raise guidance and the market took the stock down a but. With Technology, Retail and Energy beating-and-raising this steady-eddie isn’t really going anywhere. For the first time in a long time I moved ESRX out of the top-five in my Power Rankings. | |||||
| Deckers Outdoor (DECK) | 2/23 | 2/24 | $1.93 | $2.27 | Beat $0.34 |
| Once again DECK beats up on estimates after management declares things are good-but-not-great. This P/E is around 20, which is fair for a growing shoe company. Profits were up 30% but I can’t put DECK in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio becasue management always preaches “we will grow good-not-great”. | |||||
| Bridgepoint Education (BPI) | 3/1 | 3/1 | $0.37 | $0.45 | Beat $0.08 |
| Bridgepoint is a great company stuck in a rotten sector. I love the P/E of aroun 7 and hope that we can hold out until that P/E rises to 12. But the others in this space outside of K12 (LRN) are struggling and that keeps this stock from moving up. | |||||
| China Lodging Group (HTHT) | 3/4 | 3/9 | $0.08 | $0.09 | Beat $0.01 |
| The Chinese hotel sector is going to grow revenue in 2011 but maybe not profits. 2011 was so good because of the World Expo that room rates will have to come down some. So although HTHT will grow 30-40% this year, profits could be flat. This is a long-term buy-and-hold small stock that should someday grow into a large stock. | |||||
