| Stock (Symbol) | Date Expected |
Date Reported |
Profit Expected |
Profit Reported |
Beat, Met or Missed |
| Sharek’s Take | |||||
| Apple (AAPL) | 10/18 | 10/18 | $3.94 | $4.64 | Beat $0.70 |
| Revenue of $20 billion was a billion over estimates and up 67% year-over-year. One of the biggest companies around and it had sales up 67%! Profits grew 155%. APPL has a P/E around 16 — yes 16. Margins fell from 39% to 37% but Apple sets the price of the iPad low to discourage competition, I’m fine with that. IPones and Macintosh sales beat estimates and iPad sales missed, but that was because they couldn’t get the things built fast enough. | |||||
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) | 10/19 | 10/20 | $2.11 | $2.14 | Beat $0.03 |
| Stock was down almost $20 today, the day after it reported. DaVinci sales missed estimates. Something hasn’t been right with this stock for a while. The NASDAQ was on a tear the past two months and ISRG has been trending down. Today’s move was a breakout to the downside (through support at $260) on high volume. With a P/E of 30 ISRG isn’t expensive, but something is not right here. | |||||
| Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) | 10/21 | 10/21 | $1.28 | $1.52 | Beat $0.24 |
| The most impressive thing about Chipotle’s report is same store sales were up 11%. Same store sales in retail stores & restaurants is a top factor in determining a stock’s near term movement. From this its safe to say CMG should stay hot. Stock closed at $180 yesterday, its around $200 today, selling for around 33 times next year’s earnings. | |||||
| Baidu.com (BIDU) | 10/25 | 10/21 | $0.40 | $0.45 | Beat $0.05 |
| $0.45 v. $0.20 a year ago = 125% profit growth in the quarter. Sales rose 76%. BIDU upped revenue guidance for next quarter to $354 million – $3.65 million vs. analyst estimates of $349 million, so its safe to say profit estimates will rise in the next week too. Stock is around 49 times current 2011 earnings and BIDU has been able to shoulder a 60 P/E in the past. | |||||
| Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) | 10/26 | 10/26 | $0.43 | $0.47 | Beat $0.04 |
| Profits were up 24% last quarter and revenue grew 14%. The bad news is same store sales for the first month of Q4 fell. Notice above that Chipotle’s same store sales were up 11% last quarter, so essentially CMG is a leader and BWLD is not. Still, I can’t complain about twenty-something-percent profit growth, and investors shouldn’t either. Note a lot of Wild Wings are in Ohio, and LeBron is in Miami (I mean on South Beach). | |||||
| Express Scripts (ESRX) | 10/27 | 10/27 | $0.65 | $0.65 | Met |
| ESRX isn’t getting any love as tech stocks are soooo tasty right now. Profits were up 59% last quarter mainly on the combination of the NextRX business. Stock selling for 15x next years earnings, which is a great value for a growth stock (current expected long-term growth rate is 20%). Stock is acting really flat right now, but is building a base and if the NASDAQ takes a breather, money could flow this way. | |||||
| Deckers Outdoor (DECK) | 10/28 | 10/28 | $0.93 | $1.07 | Beat $0.14 |
| Once again DEckers whips estimates. Profits grew 24% which beat an estimate of 8%. I wish management would be more up-front about business being good, the 8% estimate was not fair. Revenue rose 22% which is outstanding. Street likes the news and made DECK break out to an all-time high of $57, besting the December 2007 and June 2010 resistance points of $56. Of course management STILL didn’t up guidance. C’mon guys! | |||||
| Rovi (ROVI) | 10/28 | 10/28 | $0.48 | $0.55 | Beat $0.07 |
| Rovi’s profit of $0.55 was vs last year’s $0.33 so profits grew 67%. Sales rose 21%. Who knows how long the strong profit growth will continue, because Rovi doesn’t disclose enough info when it signs new arrangements. This is a stock I wish to hold for the next few years because Rovi is putting menu guides into Apple and Google TV TV/Internet projects. Soon we will be surfing the web on our TV, using Rovi on-screen guides. | |||||
| Strayer Education (STRA) | 10/28 | 10/28 | $1.70 | $1.72 | Beat $0.02 |
| I was just glad this stock didn’t fall after earnings (opening at $127 and closing at $128). Then the next day we got a pleasant surprise as STRA went to $140. I don’t know, annual estimates keep falling a little and that doesn’t fit the mold. I may look for a rally to sell STRA in the Growth Portfolio, this is more of a core buy-and-hold for a few years to see what happens stock. | |||||
| Herbalife (HLF) | 11/1 | 11/1 | $1.03 | $1.17 | Beat $0.14 |
| HLF beat by 14 cents, but it beat by 39 cents two quarters ago, so the stock is set to open down around a dollar from yesterday’s close. Company sees 2010 EPS of $4.54 to $4.58 vs. $4.40 estimate, 2011 EPS of $5.00 to $5.25 vs. $4.92 estimate. Overall HLF beat and raised and is selling for 12 times earnings (2011). Sales were up 15% and profits up 38% (helped by a better profit margin and lower tax rate due to International sales). | |||||
| Cognizant Tech. Solutions (CTSH) | 11/1 | 11/1 | $0.60 | $0.66 | Beat $0.06 |
| Revenue jumped 43% and profits rose 47% last quarter. Management sees revenue growth of 39% this year, which is quite amazing considering CTSH has been growing like this for around a decade now. Company sees $0.68 next quarter (I had $0.63) and 2010 profits of “at least” $2.50 (I had $2.28). I want to see what 2011 estimates go to next week after the dust settles. CTSH is selling for around 24 times next year’s earnings, as it should be. | |||||
| Catalyst Health Solutions (CHSI) | 11/1 | 11/3 | $0.47 | $0.48 | Beat $0.01 |
| Profits grew 30% and revenue was up 28%. Its tough to get a firm grasp of CHSI’s near term prospects because it always has deals its negotiating and we don’t know the terms. Will the company lower profit margins to get a big customer? The company just signed Independent Blue Cross which could double prescriptions, but the cost of “doing the deal” may be a little more than expected. CHSI could get Walgreens’ business — which would be huge. | |||||
| Mastercard (MA) | 11/2 | 11/2 | $3.53 | $3.94 | Beat $0.41 |
| This was a big beat — and the stock opened at $248 today after closing at $2.39 yesterday. Profits were up 13% last quarter, revenue rose only 5% but MA’s revenue doesn’t have to increase much to get good profit growth. Stock’s at $246 now and a close over $2.49 would be a breakout from a cup and small handle. MA’s P/E is 15 (using 2011 earnings) and the expected Long Term Growth Rate is 20%. | |||||
| Bridgepoint Education (BPI) | 11/2 | 11/2 | $0.52 | $0.61 | Beat $0.09 |
| Stock closed at $14 yesterday and opened at $16 today. Management ups 2010 EPS estimate to $2.02 to $2.05 (I had $1.98). Company repurchased 3 million shares last quarter, which at $14 or so equates to $42 million of a current $762 million market cap — and the company still has $230 million in cash and the authority to repurchase $18 million more stock. Revenue rose 50% and profits jumped 61%. Numbers are awesome, sector awful. | |||||
| Ctrip.com (CTRP) | 11/2 | 11/2 | $0.23 | $0.31 | Beat $0.08 |
| Ctrip sees next quarter’s revenue blow views and this took the stock down from the 52-week high of $52 down to $48. No biggie. The stock got ahead of itself anyway, with travel doing well –especially in China. Look, this is a stock to hold for the long-haul, as you could get shook-out only to have the stock blast higher (as has happened to me). CTRP is selling for 38 times earnings (2011) and its sold for 40-60 times earnings, in my mind anyway. | |||||
| Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) | 11/8 | $0.20 | |||
| Priceline.com (PCLN) | 11/8 | 11/8 | $4.94 | $5.33 | Beat $0.39 |
| Need any proof that the recession is behind us and the economy is growing briskly again? Profits up 77%. Sales rose 37%, up from the 27% rise two quarters ago. Management upped next quarter’s profit estimate by 14%, if I up the current 2011 consensus estimate by 14% that would be $17.92. A P/E of 25 would be $448 (PCLN set to open around $415). The issue I have with PCLN is the P/E is now pushing 30, it used to be in the teens. | |||||
| China Lodging Group (HTHT) | 11/17 | $0.19 | |||
