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Disney Continues to Digest its Prior Gains

Stock (Symbol)

Walt Disney (DIS)

Stock Price

$106

Sector
Retail & Travel
Data is as of
July 1, 2017
Expected to Report
Aug 8
Company Description
The Walt Disney Company’s business segments include Media Networks, Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment, Consumer Products and Interactive. The Media Networks segment includes cable and broadcast television networks, television stations, and radio networks and stations. The Parks and Resorts segment owns and operates the Disney Resorts and Disney Cruise Line. The Studio Entertainment segment produces live-action and animated motion pictures through Walt Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Touchstone Pictures & Lucasfilm. The Consumer Products segment engages with licensees to design a range of products. Source: Thomson Financial
Sharek’s Take
David SharekDisney (DIS) is digesting its gains made from 2012 to 215 when it tripled in price. The P/E got a little high (23) and now it has settled down (18), but is still slightly above my Fair Value (17). Disney has lots of growth opportunity. It has the ability to put its broadcasting on a monthly subscription service — where viewers pay the company directly. Games and shows on ESPN, movies from Disney, shows for kids on the Disney Channel, etc. In 2019 Star Wars land will open in Disney Land and Disney World. At 14 acres it will be the largest addition they’ve ever had. Walt Disney is the world’s largest media company, with four main divisions:

  • Media Networks (43% of 2016 sales) — ABC, ESPN, Disney Channel, ESPN Radio.
  • Parks & Resorts (31%) — Disneyland, Walt Disney World, Disney Cruise Line. Shanghai Disney opened in 2016.
  • Studio Entertainment (17%) — Disney Studios, Pixar, Marvel, Touchstone Pictures, Lucasfilm.
  • Consumer Products & Interactive Media (10%) — toys, apps, apparel, books, games.

Disney Owns the Content. Live sports games have never been stronger and ESPN owns more national sports rights than all other media combined. ESPN has been losing cable customers, but that might turn around in 2018. And honestly, sports fans want games and will pay for them online. CEO Bob Iger has acquired Pixar, Marvel and Star Wars and all produce blockbusters THEN deliver merchandise sales AND content for digital delivery via either cable or subscription. DIS is one of the safest stocks in the world, has grown profits 10% a year the last decade with an Est. LTG of 9% a year. Tack on a dividend yield of 2% and you have a great core holding for conservative investors. The only issue is the stock’s not on sale, but with the stock going sideways the P/E is coming down. My 2018 Fair Value is $114 a share plus the dividends investors receive along the way.

One Year Chart
Last qtr DIS delivered 3% revenue growth and 10% profit growth, which beat estimates of 3% profit growth. Annual estimates stayed around the same, but NextQtr’s estimate fell. Qtrly profit Estimates are now -2%, 17%, 12% and 7% — not bad. The stock has been flat this year, but is hitting its 200-day moving average, which is usually a bottom for quality stocks as institutional investors buy at that point.
Fair Value
The real issue here is people are down on ESPN which is losing cable subscribers. But I look ahead to those online subscribers — who can subscribe all around the world with just an internet connection. My Fair Value is $101 this year and $114 in 2018.
Bottom Line
Walt Disney is a high quality Blue Chip stock that’s perfect for long-term buy-and-hold investors. The stock is basing here, and giving investors a chance to climb aboard. I’m very impressed with the way the company has been able to keep growing at a nice rate even after all these years, and the plan of (1) blockbuster movies then (2) content for digital delivery and (3) product sales is tremendously effective. DIS ranks 29th of 33 stocks in the Conservative Portfolio Power Rankings.
Power Rankings
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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Conservative Stock Portfolio

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