Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) |
$24 |
|
Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
August 20, 2012 |
Nov 5 |
Food & Necessities |
Sharek’s Take | ||
Green Mountain has had quite a year. The stock was around $100 a year ago and is now a dead-duck at $24. Why didn’t I sell earlier? Here’s why:
|
||
One-Year Chart | ||
I want to point out GMCR was a growth stock one quarter ago: profit growth was a solid 33%. Pessimisom was high and I felt GMCR would beat the battered expectations. I didn’t. The stock is dead money now. But honestly the stock is where it was last quarter anyway. | ||
Earnings Table | ||
Profit growth was only 6% last quarter. Sales rose 21%. Profits should have been better.
GMCR missed previously reduced estimates by a penny. I really expected a beat (like the company did 3QtrsAgo). Quarterly estimates continue to fall and now single-digit growth is expected. Time to sell. |
||
Fair Value | ||
GMCR is undervalued but this isn’t a growth stock any longer. | ||
Ten-Year Chart | ||
Yes, GMCR stock has been an excellent investment the past ten-years, compounding at a rate of 36% a year. Profits are also extensively higher than a decade ago: from six cents a share to over two dollars per share. | ||
Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
N/A |
Green Mountain Coffee has had one of the best runs of any stock in the last decade. Even after dropping 75% from its highs, the stock has still gone from $1 to $24 in ten years. Unfortunatly, GMCR isn’t a growth stock at this point, and I will sell it from the Growth Portfolio today. |
|
Aggressive Growth Portfolio
N/A |