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Lucky Number 13

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Express Scripts (ESRX)

$86

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

May 11, 2015

Jul 27 – Jul 31

Healthcare

Sharek’s Take
David SharekExpress Scripts has a lucky number this qtr, and that number is 13. I think the stock will go up 13% in the next year. Profits are also expected to climb an average of 13% the next four qtrs. And analysts feel ESRX will grow profits 13% per year for the long-term. Now the question is: Is 13% enough? Right now it is. With the stock market slightly overvalued, there’s not a lot opportunities where we can make 20% per year in a stock. So 13% without taking on much risk is the right move to make right now. ESRX is a steady grower, that I purchased back at $7 a share in 2001. The ten-year chart always looks amazing. ESRX is fairly valued at this time. Traders might find better opportunities elsewhere.
One-Year Chart
ESRX_2015_Q2This stock has been on a good climb higher. This move kind of took me by surprise. P/E of 16 is right where it should be, so the stock’s not undervalued right now.
Earnings Table
ESRX_2015_Q2_EPSExpress Scripts grew profits 11% last qtr as sales rose 5%.
 
The company met earnings estimates and always comes close every qtr.
 
Annual Profit Estimates 
rose a penny for 2015 & 2016.
 
Management upped next qtr’s profit estimate, and analysts followed suit. 13% growth is expected for the next year.
Fair Value
ESRX_2015_Q2_PHESRX is selling around its fair value right now, and as discussed earlier has 13% upside to 2016. 
Ten-Year Chart
ESRX_2015_Q2_10yrBeautiful ten-year chart, but profit growth has slowed the past few years. The days of 20% growth are gone.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

22 of 23

Express Scripts is a safe conservative stock that should be able to give investors 13% returns per year, on average. It’s fairly valued at this time so if you’re impatient then other stocks might give more spice to your portfolio.
 
For the 2nd straight qtr ESRX ranks 22nd of 23 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings as it’s far below the 20% expected growth rate I look for. This stock’s not in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

N/A

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