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No Longer “An Expensive Trip”

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Ctrip.com (CTRP)

$47

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

November 8, 2010

Jan 31

Retail & Travel

Sharek’s Take
David SharekLast quarter, I thought Ctrip.com was “an expensive trip”. That was then (P/E of 51), this is now (P/E 37). So CTRP has gone from expensive to slightly undervalued.Over long periods of say a decade or so, I think a stock’s rate of growth will be similar the company’s rate of profit growth. I’ve owned CTRP on-and-off since December 1, 2004. During that time CTRP has proven the ability to grow profits at around 40% a year. 40 times earnings is a fair price for a 40% grower, so CTRP was expensive and now its not.
 
Ctrip has a lot of growth opportunity ahead. The Chinese travel market is growing explosively, with budget hotels leading the surge. CTRP controls a quarter of the budget hotel market. The Shanghai World Expo just ended (ran from May-Oct). So Chinese travel might calm down a bit and next year’s growth might be under expectations because this year’s results were so good. Still I love this opportunity to purchase CTRP at below fair market value.
One-Year Chart
In Ctrip’s one-year chart the analysts have pegged the estimated long-term growth rate at 31%. I believe CTRP has the opportunity to grow profits 40% a year.Profit growth was 55% last quarter and is expected to slow to 32% the next two quarter, still very solid.
 
I like the little pullback CTRP’s made since the highs, but there’s a base from $35 to $42 that I would like to buy in.
Profit Growth
Profits grew 55% last quarter and revenues jumped 48% – 48%! CTRP came down after earnings because it expects 30-35% revenue growth ahead (still awesome).
 
CTRP beat by 8 cents last quarter but I can’t tell if that will continue with the Expo done.
 
Annual Profit EstimatesAnnual estimates rose a bit, which is nice, but nothing special.
 
Future QuartersThe next four quarters look very solid — 32% per quarter.
Fair Value
The real reason CTRP is undervalued this quarter is I am looking at 2011 estimates instead of 2010. Also, the fair value table shows upside through 2012 is excellent.
Ten-Year Chart
I first purchased CTRP on 12/1/04 at $7, then I sold 9/18/08 at $20 and bought CTRP again on 12/28/09 and paid $37. I should have held the entire time, now I view CTRP as a buy-and-hold stock.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

9 of 18

Ctrip makes a big move up in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. The stock is a good buy here for people who are thinking long-term. CTRP is the the 9th best stock in the 18 stock Growth Portfolio, up from 15th of 17 stocks last quarter.
 
On Monday I will purchase CTRP in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio. replacing Bridgepoint Education (BPI) which has underperformed. CTRP will be the 7th best stock in this 10 stock portfolio.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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