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A Solid Value

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Express Scripts (ESRX)

$54

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

December 9, 2012

Feb 18

Healthcare

Sharek’s Take
David SharekPharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) Express Scripts (ESRX) is going though quite a few changes recently. First it lost its business with Walgreens (WAG), then got it back. Second, it acquired Medco and is integrating the company. The issue with ESRX right now is management recently stated analysts were too optimistic about synergies from the Medco merger — that 2013 profit estimates of 28% were too high — so ESRX is now down a bit and a very solid value.
Ten-Year Chart
ESRX_2012_Q4_10yrI’ve owned ESRX since 2001, its been one of my finest investments. I love how profits never declined the entire decade. Notice the recent dip on the far right of the chart, I feel this is an amazing buying opportunity.
Profit History
ESRX_2012_Q4_PHWith the recent decline in the stock price, ESRX is selling for only 13 times 20132 earnings. I feel this stock peaks when the P/E gets to around 19. My Fair Value is 18 times earnings. This stock has solid upside.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Conservative Portfolio

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Express Scripts is the perfect bland of certainty, consistency and growth opportunity. It’s down on comments from management, yet management has stated publicly that the stock is “tremendously undervalued”. ESRX is raked #2 overall in the Conservative Growth Portfolio Power Rankings.

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